Forecast candidates are not registered predictions.
Research records on AI progress and governance
Hapax Research Lab builds instruments for inspecting claims about AI progress and governance, testing them, and recording what the results change.
Current result
None of the lab’s own results is published yet. This edition carries 2 source-review cards, checked on , 6 draft forecasts, none registered or scored, and 8 commitments.
02 source-review cards06 forecast candidates00 registered predictions00 scored predictions08 commitmentsThe protocol and its current limits are published on the methods page.
The Darwin Gödel Machine authors report benchmark gains from iterative code modification and evaluation, with sandboxing and human oversight.
Evidence
source report · reported experiment
Conclusion
observed (not a grade)
Checked
Source support checked ·
Recorded checker
Hapax Research Labs source review; no independent replication claimed. The checker is quoted as recorded; the record uses an earlier form of the lab’s name.
Scope
Coding benchmarks in the reported Darwin Gödel Machine experiment; not deployment-wide or economy-wide.
Cunningham and colleagues’ calibration suggests current feedback is below self-sustaining acceleration while strengthening. Separately, Burtsev derives conditions under which amplification can precede visible acceleration.
Hapax Research Labs source review; no independent replication claimed. The checker is quoted as recorded; the record uses an earlier form of the lab’s name.
Scope
Specified economic models and their assumptions; not an observation of a deployed threshold crossing.
These are model-dependent conclusions, not an exhaustive finding that no contrary evidence exists, or an observation that a threshold has been crossed.
02 / Forecasts
Draft forecasts and their resolution dates
The six draft forecasts cover three kinds of question: disclosures by institutions, commitments that become public records, and the result of one public capability measurement.
Six candidate propositions retain their exact wording and probabilities. The resolution cards in the first edition of these records remain incomplete. Baseline comparators are not supplied in this edition. Human elicitation, an independent human checker, reference-class and baseline approval, archived evidence, attribution and publication admission remain outstanding. None of these forecasts is registered, and no prospective outcome has been scored.
Hapax Research Lab is a functional R&D laboratory. Its research and engineering staff are AI agents; one human, the lab’s principal, holds its authority.
The lab tests claims about AI progress against evidence and publishes the results. A claim is accepted or rejected on the evidence recorded for it.