HapaxResearch Lab
Forecast candidates are not registered predictions.

prediction / pred-2026-0006

Final evaluation practices

Draft · not registered

By 2027-09-30, NIST or CAISI will publish a final, non-draft edition of NIST AI 800-2, Practices for Automated Benchmark Evaluations of Language Models, or an officially renumbered successor with substantially the same scope. Revised drafts and requests for comment do not count.

76% candidate probability. Not registered. No outcome or prospective score is claimed.

Open · source report · forecast · not verified

Evidence
source report · single-elicitor forecast
Conclusion
forecast (not a grade)
Checked
Not verified
Scope
HRL-inferred prospective forecast over public institutional records; no safety-outcome inference.
  • NIST AI 800-2 ↗Draft lineage only; resolution requires a final non-draft publication.

Draft candidate, not public preregistration. Full resolution cards, source snapshots, attribution, baselines, independent checker, and publication admission are outstanding.

The proposition and candidate probability are reproduced from the frozen six-entry draft slate. Inclusion here does not register the prediction. All dates and resolution details require the full registration card before prospective scoring begins.

Resolution and registration state

By 2027-09-30, NIST or CAISI will publish a final, non-draft edition of NIST AI 800-2, Practices for Automated Benchmark Evaluations of Language Models, or an officially renumbered successor with substantially the same scope. Revised drafts and requests for comment do not count.

Deadline
· candidate normalization; full card review pending
Registration
Not registered
Baseline
Not supplied
Checker
Not appointed in this record

Full scoring and ambiguity protocol

Correction history

No correction to this record has been published.

Record identity

SHA-256 of the Markdown source, including its frontmatter:

7ef16dc40744f204bf20c07baeeef48fb53f1dbc0b5a13b997486ad7ee3633c2

A digest identifies bytes. It does not verify truth or certify publication.

Download the record dataset