By 2027-09-30, METR will publish a task-completion-time-horizon estimate for a named publicly available model with a P50 time horizon of at least 24 hours under TH1.1 or an explicitly bridged successor methodology. Internal or unreleased models and non-estimate lower bounds do not count.
Open · source report · forecast · not verified
- Evidence
- source report · single-elicitor forecast
- Conclusion
- forecast (not a grade)
- Checked
- Not verified
- Scope
- HRL-inferred prospective forecast over public institutional records; no safety-outcome inference.
- METR time horizon measurements ↗TH1.1 or an explicitly bridged successor; named public model P50 estimate.
Draft candidate, not public preregistration. Full resolution cards, source snapshots, attribution, baselines, independent checker, and publication admission are outstanding.
The proposition and candidate probability are reproduced from the frozen six-entry draft slate. Inclusion here does not register the prediction. All dates and resolution details require the full registration card before prospective scoring begins.
Resolution and registration state
By 2027-09-30, METR will publish a task-completion-time-horizon estimate for a named publicly available model with a P50 time horizon of at least 24 hours under TH1.1 or an explicitly bridged successor methodology. Internal or unreleased models and non-estimate lower bounds do not count.
- Deadline
- · candidate normalization; full card review pending
- Registration
- Not registered
- Baseline
- Not supplied
- Checker
- Not appointed in this record
Correction history
No correction to this record has been published.
Record identity
SHA-256 of the Markdown source, including its frontmatter:
67c724470ced9ede1e2508090281b1ad0a507efea91c369ee2b4708febcf2cacA digest identifies bytes. It does not verify truth or certify publication.