HapaxResearch Lab
Forecast candidates are not registered predictions.

prediction / pred-2026-0004

California statutory report

Draft · not registered

By 2027-01-31, Cal OES will file or publicly post its first report required by California Business and Professions Code §22757.13(g). A zero-incident report counts; a portal, press release, or legislative description without the statutory report does not.

The proposition’s date, 31 January 2027, is read as 23:59:59 Pacific time, which is 2027-02-01T07:59:59Z. The statute sets a start date (‘Beginning January 1, 2027, and annually thereafter’) and transmission to the Legislature and the Governor, not a public filing deadline. The 31 January window is this forecast’s own choice.

92% candidate probability. Not registered. No outcome or prospective score is claimed.

Open · source report · forecast · not verified

Evidence
source report · single-elicitor forecast
Conclusion
forecast (not a grade)
Checked
Not verified
Scope
HRL-inferred prospective forecast over public institutional records; no safety-outcome inference.

Draft candidate, not public preregistration. Full resolution cards, source snapshots, attribution, baselines, independent checker, and publication admission are outstanding.

The proposition and candidate probability are reproduced from the frozen six-entry draft slate. Inclusion here does not register the prediction. All dates and resolution details require the full registration card before prospective scoring begins.

Resolution and registration state

By 2027-01-31, Cal OES will file or publicly post its first report required by California Business and Professions Code §22757.13(g). A zero-incident report counts; a portal, press release, or legislative description without the statutory report does not.

Deadline
· candidate normalization; full card review pending
Registration
Not registered
Baseline
Not supplied
Checker
Not appointed in this record

Full scoring and ambiguity protocol

Correction history

No correction to this record has been published.

Record identity

SHA-256 of the Markdown source, including its frontmatter:

2a0eb0e3b299dbc09c1e25f3b877d9a155778826db594484fb7b81d89306c200

A digest identifies bytes. It does not verify truth or certify publication.

Download the record dataset