By 2027-09-30, Anthropic will expressly conclude that the “Automated R&D in key domains” threshold in RSP v3.4 has been met, or Google DeepMind will expressly conclude that a named model reached ML R&D Automation Level 1 or Acceleration Level 1 under FSF v3.1. Only explicit public attainment counts; alert thresholds, precautionary safeguards, or later framework renaming do not.
Open · source report · forecast · not verified
- Evidence
- source report · single-elicitor forecast
- Conclusion
- forecast (not a grade)
- Checked
- Not verified
- Scope
- HRL-inferred prospective forecast over public institutional records; no safety-outcome inference.
- Anthropic responsible scaling policy ↗RSP v3.4 threshold text must be archived and bound before registration.
- Google DeepMind frontier safety framework ↗FSF v3.1 threshold text must be archived and bound before registration.
Draft candidate, not public preregistration. Full resolution cards, source snapshots, attribution, baselines, independent checker, and publication admission are outstanding.
The proposition and candidate probability are reproduced from the frozen six-entry draft slate. Inclusion here does not register the prediction. All dates and resolution details require the full registration card before prospective scoring begins.
Resolution and registration state
By 2027-09-30, Anthropic will expressly conclude that the “Automated R&D in key domains” threshold in RSP v3.4 has been met, or Google DeepMind will expressly conclude that a named model reached ML R&D Automation Level 1 or Acceleration Level 1 under FSF v3.1. Only explicit public attainment counts; alert thresholds, precautionary safeguards, or later framework renaming do not.
- Deadline
- · candidate normalization; full card review pending
- Registration
- Not registered
- Baseline
- Not supplied
- Checker
- Not appointed in this record
Correction history
No correction to this record has been published.
Record identity
SHA-256 of the Markdown source, including its frontmatter:
e901130b22884e154bc3ed6b31ee810542a5353f594ab5bd1b54245635b9a665A digest identifies bytes. It does not verify truth or certify publication.