The European Commission will not adopt, on or before 2 August 2027, a delegated act under Article 51(3) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 that either changes the numerical 10^25-FLOP threshold in Article 51(2) or supplements Article 51 with a benchmark or indicator for determining high-impact capabilities. Resolve by Commission adoption date, allowing 30 days for documentary publication; drafts, consultations, guidance, designations, implementing acts, and ordinary legislation do not count.
Open · source report · forecast · not verified
- Evidence
- source report · single-elicitor forecast
- Conclusion
- forecast (not a grade)
- Checked
- Not verified
- Scope
- HRL-inferred prospective forecast over public institutional records; no safety-outcome inference.
- EU AI Act — Article 51 ↗Article 51(2) and 51(3).
Draft candidate, not public preregistration. Full resolution cards, source snapshots, attribution, baselines, independent checker, and publication admission are outstanding.
The proposition and candidate probability are reproduced from the frozen six-entry draft slate. Inclusion here does not register the prediction. All dates and resolution details require the full registration card before prospective scoring begins.
Resolution and registration state
The European Commission will not adopt, on or before 2 August 2027, a delegated act under Article 51(3) of Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 that either changes the numerical 10^25-FLOP threshold in Article 51(2) or supplements Article 51 with a benchmark or indicator for determining high-impact capabilities. Resolve by Commission adoption date, allowing 30 days for documentary publication; drafts, consultations, guidance, designations, implementing acts, and ordinary legislation do not count.
- Deadline
- · candidate normalization; full card review pending
- Registration
- Not registered
- Baseline
- Not supplied
- Checker
- Not appointed in this record
Correction history
No correction to this record has been published.
Record identity
SHA-256 of the Markdown source, including its frontmatter:
47daa5d48864dd21c675c6a22db215733b0fc0efa22ef645eecb33f9d82ccef3A digest identifies bytes. It does not verify truth or certify publication.